JACKSONVILLE, FL – We analyzed raw data from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis to explore the relationship between educational attainment in Jacksonville and the prevalence of housing-cost burdened households. A burdened household in the U.S. spends more than 30% of its monthly income on housing, while it is generally recommended to keep housing expenses below 25% of monthly income.

Our analysis revealed a fairly strong negative correlation between educational attainment and housing-cost burdened households, with the strongest correlation emerging with a four-year delay. This suggests that higher education levels predict a subsequent reduction in the proportion of income that households allocate to housing expenses. This relationship is intuitive: higher education often leads to higher income levels, which allows for more affordable housing costs. For multifamily stakeholders, these insights offer valuable data for forecasting future market performance and tenant financial stability.

Interpreting the Raw Data

An initial examination of the raw data shows the basic trajectories of educational achievements and financial strain on households. Imagine a graph where one line tracks the rise or fall in educational achievements, and another line follows the financial strain on households. This comparative view provides a backdrop for a more in-depth analysis.

The Significance of Year-over-Year Analysis

To delve deeper, we examined year-over-year (YoY) changes, which filter out one-time anomalies and highlight underlying trends. This approach offers a clearer perspective on the direction and velocity of changes. The YoY analysis reveals that as educational attainment rises, the proportion of housing-cost burdened households decreases. This negative correlation becomes clearer in the chart, where the trend lines move in opposite directions: when one goes up, the other goes down.

Education as a Leading Indicator of Housing Affordability

Now that we have identified a negative correlation, we explored whether education could be used as a leading indicator. The correlation coefficient of -0.601 with a four-year lag indicates that it can. This means a rise in educational attainment today implies better housing affordability four years into the future, and vice versa. This delayed relationship is evident in the chart, showing how changes in education levels precede changes in housing affordability.

Implications for the Multifamily Sector

The relationship between educational attainment and housing affordability has significant implications for Jacksonville’s multifamily market. As education levels rise, historical data suggests a reduction in the proportion of income that households allocate to housing expenses. For investors, this trend signals a potential increase in tenant financial stability, which could translate into higher rents, lower delinquency rates, and reduced turnover costs.

From an underwriting perspective, educational attainment provides an additional socio-economic indicator for assessing risk and forecasting financial performance. When evaluating multifamily assets, underwriters might consider the educational makeup of the tenant population alongside traditional metrics such as employment rates and income levels.

Conclusion

While correlation does not imply causation, the identified trend is a noteworthy indicator of potential economic health in sub-markets. Investors and asset managers should consider educational achievements as one of many leading indicators for housing market resilience and tenant affordability. These insights can inform asset management decisions and investment strategies and are just one of the many data points Nuvo analyzes when determining where to invest.

For a deeper dive into the analysis and to explore the detailed data and methodology behind these findings, read the full article here.

About Nuvo Capital Partners

Nuvo Capital Partners is a niche market-focused multifamily private equity firm operating throughout the Southeastern United States. As a dedicated sponsor (General Partner), we specialize in institutional quality real estate investments within these regions. Our team, with a combined 25+ years of experience, has facilitated over $700M in transactions (10,000+ units). Delivering a transparent investment process, we provide our investors with access to high-quality real estate opportunities, while also ensuring integrity throughout. Our commitment extends to providing monthly, quarterly, and yearly in-depth reporting for our valued investors. To learn more, visit nuvocapitalpartners.com.

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